Optimism September 29, 2005
This happens to be another Phillies post. They aren't out, yet. They won last night, and are now 2.5 games behind the Astros. The Phillies are off tonight, and the Astros play the Cubs. The Cubbies are going into Houston with a 2 game losing streak, are 10 games behind (are out), and have no motivation to win any games against the Astros, other than to help the Phillies (and possibly maintain some dignity). Our E# (defined as "the Elimination Number, which is the combined number of wins (by the first place team) and losses (by the trailing team) that will eliminate the trailing team from winning the division") is 2. It's like in golf match play. If the winner is 3 up on the 15th hole, if he wins that hole, it's over. He wins "4 and 3". At 3 up on the 15th hole, the golfer who is behind will have an E# of 1. It gets more difficult when the teams aren't playing each other, then golf is no longer a valid analogy.
It's this in baseball: if Houston wins every game they have left, and the Phillies win every game, the season is over when there's 2 games left. Or the Phillies can just make it easy for them and lose 2 to the Nationals. Hand them the Wild Card.
But how about those Phillies?!!? 16-6 last night over the Mets. Chase Utley, I swear, doesn't even swing the bat and he hits homers half way up the foul pole. I'm not sure of the distance, but let's do some educated estimation and call it a mile. Another analogy with golf. You don't have to look like you're killing the ball to kill it. You take a nice easy backswing, follow through and down, generating massive clubhead speed, hitting the ball with the sweetspot of the club, killing the F@#%!@#$!@# out of the ball. It's what Chase has realized. You can look all calm up in the box, take a nice easy swing with a short follow through, and f@#%@#$!@ing smash the F%!#^!!ing thing 40 feet up on the f@#%#$!#!ing foul pole. Hit the sweet spot.
The Phillies had too many bogies this season, they need a hole in one on the last hole, a Par 4.